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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still