A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
