Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a high-stakes trip to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump. This marks the initial in-person encounter for the two figures following months of escalating tensions and heated exchanges.
Topics for Discussion
Venezuela, narcotics trade, energy, security, and American military actions on suspected narco-boats are expected to be high on the agenda when they gather at the White House on Tuesday.
Background of Strained Relations
While the two men were polite in a telephone conversation following a January US military operation, Petro has subsequently stated he believes there is a "real threat" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously commented that a such action in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
The upcoming meeting follows an extended period of the two presidents trading barbs. Petro has repeatedly condemned repeated US strikes on suspected narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's border policies.
"He changed his attitude," Trump reportedly stating ahead of the Washington talks.
Points of Contention
From Washington's perspective, Trump has accused Petro's government of not taking sufficient action to halt the flow of cocaine heading north, and has pledged to extend military actions to land targets throughout the area.
But, the acrimony appeared to subside after a "cordial" telephone conversation between the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later described as an complete reversal "from both sides".
Mediating Role
Per diplomatic sources, one man – Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the conversation. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the senator reportedly. "And I'd like to see our relations to improve."
Border Security and the ELN
Ahead of the meeting, officials from Bogotá indicated that much of the conversation would focus on mutual US and Colombian worries over stability in Venezuela, with which Colombia shares an long border.
A significant portion of that frontier is controlled of the National Liberation Army. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, controls narco-trade, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in border states and reportedly collaborates with compromised officials within the Caracas administration.
For Trump, addressing the threat of the ELN will be vital to ensuring security for US companies engaged in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts note that the ELN has the capacity to spoil investment plans by targeting foreign investors and staff, as it has in the past done in Colombia.
Counter-Narcotics Collaboration
An similarly urgent issue for the two presidents will be the struggle against cocaine trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest source of the drug. In November, Petro ordered a temporary pause on intelligence sharing with US authorities after comments from Washington.
The US has, conversely, formally listed Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating drug trafficking. It has also imposed sanctions on figures in Petro's government, including the leader and members of his family.
"There is no fight without Colombia," said a analyst. "The threat to sever Colombian cooperation could also undermine all investigations."
Possible Scenarios
But even with several issues for cooperation, the potential for a clash remains. "The US President's stance can be volatile," commented a former diplomat. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avert Trump's anger... But one never knows."
But for Petro, even a contentious meeting could be advantageous. His presidential term ends in the coming months, and the results of the meeting could impact the electoral chances of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a win-win position," noted a Latin American studies professor. "If it goes well takes the air out of opposition arguments... If it doesn't, he's protecting Colombian interests. He could use that in his favour."
